10 for ’10: T360’s predictions for the hot topics of 2010

Hello and happy new year. What with it being the first working day of 2010 and I being nothing if not clichéd, it seems fitting to kick things off with a look at what is going to be hot and happening in 2010 for the telemedia industry.

Everyone who makes predictions is trumpeting how they all got it right at the start of 2009 about how apps were going to be the big thing of last year. Looking back through most of the material I have from then, many soothsayers did indeed predicted “growth in apps” but none as far as I can see really saw how significant they were going to be.

Now, before you all get uppity about it, no apps aren’t that special in themselves I agree. What is significant about them – and about the mobile industry’s other bet noir, the iPhone – is that it changed the consumer’s perception of what is possible with a mobile phone. The iPhone, I believe, ushered in the mobile web era. The app has made doing interesting, multimedia stuff on your phone much easier. Nokia didn’t make this happen. Vodafone didn’t make this happen. Apple did. And, whether the hype distorts its true success or not, the iPhone and the app are the key mobile things to happen in the last decade, let alone the last year.

And if you don’t believe that the development of cool mobile services shouldn’t be left to network operators, then check out today’s launched of the Nexus One, the latest, and best, Android phone. Disappointed with how lacking Motorola’s stab at it was, Google has ‘personally’ overseen the development of Nexus One with HTC and has, by all accounts developed a much better competitor to the iPhone.

Anyhoo, what does this all mean for 2010? Well the app will continue to shape how mobile works I think, in quite a profound way. Apple’s dominance of the apps market will be challenged, mainly by Android and GetJar in 2010. The issue of app store fragmentation will also play a role in how 2010 shapes up, but before you know it, it won’t be about the store, it will be about where to get the best apps, which is why GetJar, the independent apps store, will I believe have a great year in 2010.

But the real impact apps will have is on how they will reshape the media’s approach to mobile and what this then spawns. So while apps are number one on my list of 10 for ’10, the media and billing come in at joint number one rather than two and three respectively.

Why? Well 2010 will be the year the media – particularly the print end of the spectrum – becomes multi-media and it will achieve this through apps. 2010 is also the year the media will start to charge for its ‘online’ content and services and, again lead by apps, will look at how micro-billing will play a part in that.

We have already looked at how mobile billing has quite a role to play in how media monetises its content, but the kind of mobile billing that will succeed is still up fro grabs. Payforit and other operator led WAP billing tools are no way guaranteed to garner widespread use. Instead, as the media industry turns to apps as the easiest way to engage people – forget for a minute whether apps are right or not, they are what people want – so in-app billing will become a key tool in how media monetises itself in 2010.

This will also lead to another, less welcome, trend in 2010: in-app billing fraud. Remember diallers? Well unauthorised in-app billing could wreak similar havoc on this fledgling industry and could well, if not regulated properly, become the PTV scam of the 2010s… and we don’t want that now do we?

There is also the worrying trend that, with recession biting the telemedia sector, some of the old scams are rearing their heads again. So this is another of my predictions for 2010 – regulatory chaos. Is PPP up to the job? Will it be able to move fast enough to encompass these changes in its next code? On past form, no it can’t. The next decade is going to have to see a radical rethink of media and telemedia regulation as, to my mind, what is in place now no longer reflects the world we are about to live in.

What else are we going to see in 2010: well the rise of  telemedia in retail will become apparent. Couponing, ticketing, contactless payments, m-wallets, mobile banking and even peer-to-peer mobile cash transfers will all come in to their own.

Purchasing using text or the web from a phone from a poster advert will be the big thing of the latter half of this new year, I think. Contact-less payments will take longer because of the inherent infrastructure issues… unless of course people wise up to the fact that there are prototype apps out there that can turn a phone into a contactless payment terminal, obviating the need for expensive infrastructure.

And it won’t be just a smartphone thing either. Stickers that turn the phone into a payment tool are already in use in Germany. Look out for more of these in the UK and the rest of the world this year.

Other techie developments to look forward to include augmented reality, which will add a whole new dimension to social networking, GPS and finder apps and even interactive TV.

This platform interaction marks another trend for 2010, which will see a greater degree of cross platform offerings hitting the scene – and along with it, a rise in issues of who actually has the rights to do what with what content and where.

Another trend that all this will unleash starting in 2010 is operator network sharing, driven by the fact that all the media services being piled on are crippling network capacity and infrastructure investment is tough in the current climate. Look out for more networks sharing infrastructure as demand grows.

So that’s it. 2010 looks like being quite a year for the telecoms and telemedia sectors, so all we have to do is get on with it…

Micro-billing: the key to charging for media content

Good news for telemedia microbilling companies: a recent study by media consultancy Oliver & Ohlbaum Associates has found that consumers are not going to be that willing to pay subscriptions for online news services, preferring instead to pay small amounts for each article they access.

The survey of 2600 consumers in the UK conducted in November as News International prepares to start charging for content, suggests that even a monthly sub of as little as £2 for a single news site will not be popular – especially, if all major news organisations introduce it at once.

Instead, the report’s findings show that micropayments for individual articles would be a much more popular – and workable – option, allowing anyone to look at whatever they want, whenever they want.

“Per article charges allow users to remain promiscuous so would be the best way for the sector to pursue payment from most users, who prefer to mix and match news sources,” the report concludes. “If all newspaper websites charged for access using article charges of 10p, the likely take up doubles compares to a monthly charge of £2.”

The study backs up what many in the telemedia sector have long been lobbying the media for – very vocally at Telemedia360 in Liverpool in October in particular. Some newspapers, such as the Washington Post and the Financial Times have managed to create and sustain a subs model from day one. Others, especially in the mainstream, tabloid market, are unlikely to really benefit from trying to get subscribers on board. Their fortunes lie in these so called promiscuous readers hitting them every now and again.

The model is also one that will, in time, also be applied to UGC services – mainstream and adult – whereby the monetisation lies in microbilling for individual hits, rather than trying to buy people’s loyalty. Sure, there is a loyalty angle to this, but really the monetisation revolves around allowing for users to hit what they like, when and where they like and charging them a small amount to do it.

The trouble is, you need a trusted, effective, one-click payment service to do it with, so that buying anything from anywhere is not a hassle or passwords and usernames, PIN numbers, security codes and so on.

And this is where telemedia comes in. Billing services are flourishing, in a sense, as the scramble to get billing tools in front of consumers grows apace. Payforit3.0 is coming in March, aimed squarely at trying to tap into web billing via mobile, but the real prize is for those out there that have the billing tools that can be easily adapted to microbilling for media and UGC content. We’ve been doing it for years and now Rupert Murdoch et al need you… darn it, the public need you.

In fact its rather essential that telemedia billing does make paying for online content more palatable: I for one think that Rupert Murdoch is fighting a losing battle trying to reign in the web. If someone goes looking for a story and finds it on one of his sites, but has to subscribe to read it, they will go elsewhere. Ideally they will look for a free version, but – and this assumes that the media industry works together on this – will go to the source where they pay the least and in the easiest way. And that brings us right back to microbilling.

As a journalist I want to get paid for writing all this. As a consumers I want it for free (or at the very least for a very, very small charge). With my consumer hat on I will probably forgo some aspects of quality to save money. All the media companies really have is their brand and trust in that brand. That is what they are selling, not the content per se.

I also strongly believe that if you start micro-charging for content on news sites, people will soon arrive at the decision that a subscription could be a better deal for them if they find themselves at the same site all the time. And that is where it gets interesting. But that is some way off, and perhaps by then Murdoch senior and his old school view of the media won’t be with is anymore.

Technology changing too fast? No, we're just tweaking

We all like to think that, being in the technology game, we are in a fast moving, era-defining job. Nothing moves fast then technology, right? And that’s a good thing, yes?

Well, no on both counts. According to Rory Sutherland, Vice-Chairman on Ogilvy Group – who took to the stage at MIG’s Digital Media & Interactive Lunch yesterday in London – technology isn’t really moving that fast: all we are doing is finessing what we already have. The real innovation in any sector tends to take place in the first 10 to 20 years. After that, its just tweaking.

Take the motor car, suggested Sutherland: the technological leap between walking and driving a Model T Ford was huge. The leap between driving a Model T Ford and today’s Mondeo is really not that great. The interface as been improved and the design safer and more refined, but really its basically the same technology.

The digital world is the same. The leap between the invention of radio communications and the mobile (and even the internet) is similarly not that great a leap from no radio to radio.

So where does this leave us on the eve of 2010? Well, while things like the iPhone and the web have really shaken up telemedia this year, they are not really the rapid steps forward that many would have us believe. They are a finessed version of what we already have.

Sutherland was talking to the 120-odd heads of mobile from leading broadcasters, agencies, retailers, e-tailers, operators and media companies that MIG had gathered together about what they should be looking for from the future of mobile. And strangely – and quite refreshingly – his take is that rather than always looking at bleeding edge tech and what it can do, the next decade will be more about finessing what we already have: using technology to make life better rather than inventing stuff and trying to put it to work.

This he dubs “un-vention”: the application of more psychology than technology. In Africa people routinely walk 5 miles each morning to be told there is no work for them today. The mobile phone, even in the poorest countries, is replacing this walk: it makes life better and more productive. We should be applying the same here in the developed world.

Why, asks Sutherland, don’t all goods a serial number and a shortcode on them so that the owner can simple text to re-order? And he doesn’t just mean when you’re running low on milk, but also when you want new socks, trousers, a TV, a microwave, a car…. Everything. Simple and, from a retail perspective, a great boon – customer for life or what?

Sutherland also touched on the big theme of the day: payments. While the telemedia community waits with despondency the arrival of Payforit3.0, thos wanting to sell things are busily looking at all billing tools. Echoing what David Sheridan from MX Telecom told me the other day, people want a wealth of payment options. In Sutherland’s view “at least 20”. Give the retailer and consumer the choice of how to pay for things, even if that means bowing to the zeitgeist: “WAP:, no one pays,” says Sutherland. “Call is ‘app billing’ and everyone pays”.

The Future of TV

Who’d have thought that the appearance on BBC TV’s Question Time of odious Nazi nutter Nick Griffin would have given so many middle aged, middle class technophobes a vision of the future? No I don’t mean that Griffin and his theatre of hate are going to seize power (God forbid), more that it saw usually passive TV viewers reaching for their mobile phones and Twittering and Facebooking away like crazy while the show was on air.

If you are under 30 you will probably think so what, but to me – as I approach middle age – I was astounded by how many people I know who never update their Facebook profiles suddenly appeared and started ranting about Griffin. Then others joined in. Pretty soon – about 10 minutes into the broadcast – there was a huge heated debate between people I know, people I don’t know but who know people I do, and people none of us know about  the programme. All on mobile.

And this is what really made me feel good inside. Suddenly a bunch of people who usually poo-poo the idea that we are all going to be interacting while watching TV were doing it. I have, because of the business I am in, long been a user of my mobile while watching TV. I tweet, I Facebook, I email, I Google stuff, I Shazam tunes that are playing. But most of my non-telemedia friends don’t.

But now they might. Presented with something that they were interested in got the older crowd going and what a riot it was: we were all broadly in agreement over the content of the show, but people raised new and interesting points and even some great jokes. It was a real experience.

But this is the future of what we do. It starts, as Question Time showed, with some social networking banter, but it won’t be long before the augmented reality services we see on mobiles are linked to TV programmes and we suddenly become two screen viewers.

This has huge ramifications for how the media and telemedia industries develop. The services that can be created using what we have today and this buy in from viewers could be huge. The question is how can this be monetised?

Well in the most obvious first instance is to start to look at what can be done around advertising on TV and the device; what can then be done with augmented reality for TV advertising; and then looking at how to perhaps keep those engaged on the second device on the air and spending through value-added services.

As Telemedia360 in Liverpool showed on 21 October, the real key is relevance. Question Time also showed this. The social interaction that that particular show spawned was a result of it being something that engaged a particular demographic with a topic that compelled them to communicate with their peers. And this is the lesson that we all need to learn to drive media interaction forward: make it relevant, make it good and make it cheap – and people will pay.

TELEMEDIA 360 LIVERPOOL Out with old media and in with the new

People across the UK are still consuming more traditional TV, radio and newspapers than new online media, according to KPMG’s first Media and Entertainment Barometer, launched this week, but with the rate of new media growth, this may not remain the case long term once the industry has got to grips with how to monetise new media channels at TELEMEDIA 360 in LIVERPOOL on 21 October.

The Barometer, based on a KPMG commissioned YouGov survey, found that online media is catching up fast – almost half of us (47 per cent) visited social networking or blogging sites in the past month, 37 per cent accessed online news feeds, 29 per cent played games online and 22 per cent downloaded music.

But despite growing online audiences, getting consumers to spend money on online media remains challenging; only 11 per cent of consumers indicated that they currently spend anything on online media. And of those that don’t spend, only 11 per cent thought they might begin subscribing to any online media in the next 12 months.

Mark Challinor, European director of the International News Media Association (INMA), a partner in TELEMEDIA 360 LIVERPOOL agrees: “It is crucial for all media companies to embrace new technologies such as mobile. Many traditional newspapers are now starting to realise that their future rests on the ability to adopt a multi channel strategy that can be nurtured over the next few years in terms of interaction, database and content distribution. They are also realizing that significant new revenue streams can be achieved through an integrated mobile marketing strategy. Telemedia360 is the event where this all comes together.”

Don’t just take our word for it, Telemedia360 in Liverpool on 21 October is the place where leading industry experts will be debating the key issues facing the media and telemedia industries as we look at how to monetise cross-platform services and technology.

“We have to explore the tension between traditional and new media: where do the two collide and where do they compliment one another. Which platform is going to win out: PC, mobile phone or TV? We will be exploring this at Telemedia360 in the new channels session”

Paul Maidment, Business Development Director, BBC Worldwide, chair of ‘NEW CHANNELS: Engaging consumers through Social Networking and UGC’ session at 12.30 on 21 October

“Telemedia360 needs to help the industry explore how much can you make from mobile advertising, how big is the market and what is holding it back at the moment.”

Jon Mew, Head of Mobile, Internet Marketing Board, a panellist in ‘MARKETING: How can you use Telemedia to market what you do’ at 16.45 on 21 October

“One of the main themes in monetising media content is CRM. The key to CRM in the modern world is to make it as easy as possible and mobile does that with its ubiquitous nature, fast & simple interaction mechanism SMS and the freedom to make the interaction spontaneously and where ever you are.”

Lee Bowden, MD of Piri and panelist in DATA & CRM: ‘Getting to know you…’ at 15.45 on 21 October

“I will be showing how different platforms and themes attract new customers. 93% of callers to our Live Psychic service are female. However, the text a Psychic and email a Psychic created a 44% male client base. In addition, we are currently trialing a new counselling service to target customers not into Astrology/Horoscopes and also the male/GLBT market via Sexual Health counselling.”

Kevin Parker, Russellgrant.com and panellist in the ‘NEW REVENUE STREAMS FOR MEDIA: What games, gambling, competitions, chat

and psychic bring’ session at 11.30 on 21 October

“I’ll be keen to discuss two things around Revenue/business models – billing models and revenue models. Billing models are a big issue due to high percentage payouts on slot style games – I’d like to get an update on what the operators are doing for alternatives to credit cards.”

Dawn Cooper, commercial manager, Million-2-1 and panellist in the ‘NEW REVENUE STREAMS FOR MEDIA: What games, gambling, competitions, chat

and psychic bring’ session at 11.30 on 21 October

So how do you do this? At TELEMEDIA 360 in LIVERPOOL on 21 October delegates will learn among other things:

• Where the old media and the new media worlds collide – and where they compliment one another

• How UGC can work with produced content – and what will consumers pay for?

• Which platform will win: PC, mobile, or TV?

• How brands, creatives and platform owners can create real loyalty amongst customers?

• How to build a converged interactive media business – the technical capabilities, consumer demand and channels to market are now aligned to allow for such an opportunity

• How much can you make from mobile advertising, how big is the market
What is holding it back at the moment and what’s been done to grow the market?

• How profiling and CRM data increases value considerably and has created a whole new revenue stream for those who see beyond the usual content driven products

• How m-web needs to be coordinated with the complete multi-channel campaign

• The use of online/mobile Horoscope/Astrology “teaser” content to drive incremental revenues in a declining publisher marketplace and the cross platform use of content

• How gambling-style games can increase revenue: successful marketing channels, placements, brand appeal / endorsement.

TELEMEDIA360 LIVERPOOL Take our interactive survey

As Telemedia360 Liverpool gets underway on 21 October next week, we are looking at taking the temperature of the telemedia value chain around the real demands and benefits of delivering media content cross platform.

Running in conjunction with Bomoko, we are carrying out a live on going survey and we would really like to gauge your views on the industry starting now and charting how views change through the show. The results will be displayed live at the M-web Explained session at 14.30 on 21 October.

So Text MOBI now to 81025 to take part. YOU CAN ALSO TAKE PART AT THE SHOW so we can then see how, thanks to our marvellous seminar programme, your views may have changed.

The day e- and m-commerce became one

Want to see into the future? Well look no further than Amazon. Or rather, it’s billing service. Amazon’s one click payment service – which users register to use online but can then use on the mobile – is starting to gain traction outside of Amazon, with games and apps store Handmark in the US integrating the offering into its services.

It is admittedly a small step for the multi-billion dollar billing industry and I doubt many telemedia executive will be losing sleep over it just yet, but it is significant for a number of reasons.

First up it marks a convergence of m- and e-commerce – something that has been coming since the iPhone launched – and looks significantly like m-commerce is merely an extension of m-commerce: different device, but the same basic site and purchasing tool.

Secondly, the move is a possible indicator as to where the mobile billing space is heading: away from network operators and towards merchants. This would be warmly welcomed by many in the industry as it increases the erosion of the stranglehold network operators have tried to exert over m-commerce since its inception. There are of course issues with PCI DSS compliance and the EU Payment Directive looming (see Telemedia360 September 2009), but a move away from MNO billing would certainly open up more varied price points, better payouts and encourage more merchants to start offering mobile commerce.

Thirdly, the move by Amazon comes at a time when the consumer is crying out for mobile commerce to take off. A study by ATG (Art Technology Group), a provider of e-commerce solutions out this week, finds that as many as 38% of UK consumers have tried to shop online from their mobiles, but 28% of those who have tried it find it a difficult, being especially concerned as to how secure the billing side of things is.

According to the study, more than one in three UK respondents (39%) say they would be more likely to shop using their mobiles if retailers provided secure and easy payment services. Twenty-four per cent think offering mobile-only offers and incentives will encourage adoption. Twenty-two per cent believe retailers should design websites optimised for smaller screens to encourage use.

The move to broaden Amazon’s billing reach can only help with this. It will also more than likely drive other online merchant billing stalwarts like PayPal to really go for it on mobile. It may even see others enter the market. It certainly offers a startling opportunity for some of the telemedia industry’s finest to look at how to make their billing tools much more mainstream and really reap the rewards.

Of course there are still many rivers to cross before the general public embraces m-commerce fully, and these must be addressed alongside the billing.

The ATG study found that, despite the growing popularity of mobile applications, just 15% of UK consumers feel developing specific commerce-related applications would entice them to shop using their mobile. The survey shows use of m-commerce would increase if retailers offered customers more personal optimised experiences to suit changing lifestyles and tastes.

This is something that the whole mobile commerce industry has to address: the whole m-commerce experience needs to change. The billing is a part of that – a significant one, from a security point of view – but just a part nonetheless. How the industry now combines personalization, social networking, status-based contacts books, apps stores and billing with m-commerce will be the next great leap forward for mobile and for telemedia. And something that will be debated at TELEMDIA360 in Liverpool on 21 October. Click here for details.