BlackBerry comes out to play

Apple has, until now, held all the cards around tablet computers, the latest device sub-genre to get developers excited/overworked. Then came Samsung, with some shortlived fanfare. Now BlackBerry has joined the throng with its delightfully named PlayBook (not BlackPad as most of the media called it) and the game is truly on.

The device is highly capable, looks good and, like iPad and GalaxyTab, does loads. There is no denying that it is a superbly engineered bit of kit. All that the media can find to knock it on is the choice of OS – not really something that impactful so long as it works.

But perhaps this device long tail that is emerging is something of a phoney war. There is no shortage of hype around tablets and how they are going to revolutionise the media and content market, but will they?

OK, many will be sold on the back of the hype and there are always enough people out there with money to chuck at the latest fad, but, once the dust of publicity has settled, will people really actually use them or will they be dug out in five years time when people start moving house again to the bemused smirk of “Darling, do you remember this?”

The experts thing that tabs are here to stay. The newspaper barons think so too. And the content providers really hope so.

Already these devices are having an impact.

Research by eMarketer suggests that these devices – along with the wealth of music players and games consoles now getting wifi and smarts – are making the content market, especially for games, music and movies, boom, hitting $1.54billion this year in the US alone.

“The continuing advance of smart devices—including tablet-style computers, led by Apple’s iPad—and the growing ubiquity of mobile broadband networks mean that consumers have to make fewer compromises when it comes to the consumption of games, music and video,” said Noah Elkin, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report, “Mobile Content: Games, Music and Video Take to the Cloud.”

eMarketer estimates combined revenues from three principal streams—subscriptions (streaming music and mobile TV services); direct and pay-per-view downloads (full music tracks, games and TV/movie/event programming); and advertising-supported (games, music services and video)—will more than double from 2010 to reach $3.53 billion in 2014.

Gaming is by far the leader in terms of usage and revenues: The number of US mobile gamers is expected to reach 64 million in 2010, driving revenues of $849 million.

Meanwhile the number of US consumers who watch mobile video or television on their mobile devices is expected to reach 23 million this year and draw revenues of $719 million. By 2014, however, mobile video revenues are expected to reach $1.3 billion.

The main factor driving revenues to game, video and music publishers is still paid or subscription-based content, though ad-supported revenues are expected to grow at more than double the rate of paid mobile content through 2014.

“The rules have not been written—yet,” Elkin said. “The ongoing digitalization of media and the increased emphasis on monetization spells opportunity for mobile game and music publishers as well as producers of video content.”

But there still remains a niggling doubt in my mind that as the phone gets smarter, the need for tablets starts to disappear. Couple this with web enabled TV hitting homes now – and that all new TV’s will be wifi enabled by 2013 – and the role of the tablet as a media and content consumption device starts to look really shaky to me. It just doesn’t fit anywhere.

I am sure millions will be sold and used, but in a few years time this market segment will be dead and buried and we will be back to looking at the TV screen, our laptops or our phones if we want to engage and it will all depend on where we are.

This will be one of the key themes at Telemedia360 in Manchester on 16 November, where we will have a panel of experts, lead by Sponge and Bemoko, to talk about what impact new devices will have on the market and whether we are right to get in a lather about tablets.

Book your place now at www.telemedia360.com